With Donald Trump's return to the White House, corporate America is gearing up for a fresh wave of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in 2025, following a trend spurred by lower borrowing costs, rising stock markets, and increased corporate confidence. According to strategists at Morgan Stanley, M&A activity is expected to rise by 50% in 2025, double the growth rate of 2024. The anticipation of a more relaxed regulatory environment under the Trump administration has further fueled speculation that companies will pursue new, bold strategies, including revisiting old ideas with a fresh perspective. Breakingviews outlines some of the most anticipated deals and industry trends that will define this new era.

1. Rivian: The Struggles and Possible Sale

Rivian Automotive, Tesla’s primary competitor in the electric vehicle market, is grappling with supply chain issues and weakening demand. The company, which has yet to turn a profit, is projected to lose around $10 billion by 2027. The Trump administration's proposed cuts to consumer subsidies and regulatory rollbacks are expected to create additional challenges for Rivian. One potential solution for CEO RJ  might be to sell the company to Volkswagen, which already invested $5 billion into. A sale to the German automaker could help stabilize s future as it navigates the rocky road ahead.

2. Exxon and Chevron: The Case for Oil Mergers

Energy giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron are already engaged in a fierce battle over their $53 billion deal to acquire Hess, a key player in the Guyana offshore oil fields. Trump’s pro-business stance and preference for the oil industry might encourage further consolidation in this space. The merger of Exxon and Chevron, which was considered in 2020, could offer substantial cost savings, potentially exceeding $20 billion. As the industry faces increasing environmental pressures and fluctuating oil prices, combining two of the largest players in the market would create a "national champion" in the sector under Trump’s administration.

3. Comcast and Charter: Reviving Old Ideas

Comcast has struggled to secure new deals in recent years, but a more favorable regulatory environment under Trump’s Federal Communications Commission (FCC) could allow Comcast to revisit its previous ambition to acquire Time Warner Cable. This idea, initially shelved due to concerns over anti-trust issues, could be revived now that regulatory barriers appear to be loosening. Meanwhile, Charter Communications, led by John Malone, may be looking to simplify its empire. Combining Comcast and Charter would generate an estimated $35 billion in synergies, making it an attractive proposition for both companies.

4. Alphabet (Google): Big Tech's Growing Influence

Google’s parent company, Alphabet, may also benefit from a less stringent regulatory environment. Despite ongoing antitrust challenges, the company has been exploring major acquisitions, including potential purchases of HubSpot and the cybersecurity startup Wiz. If Alphabet moves forward with these acquisitions, it would mark one of the largest deals in the company’s history. In this new regulatory climate, Trump’s less aggressive approach to Big Tech could allow companies like Google to grow even larger and more dominant.

5. Consolidating U.S. Financial Regulators

Beyond corporate mergers, Trump may look to streamline government agencies, particularly in the financial sector. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which currently operate separately despite overseeing overlapping areas of financial regulation, could be merged into a single, more efficient agency. This move would eliminate bureaucratic redundancies, streamline operations, and bring the U.S. into alignment with other countries that combine derivatives and stock oversight into one regulatory body. Such a consolidation would also resolve long-standing jurisdictional disputes, including the one over cryptocurrency regulations.

Conclusion: A New Era of M&A and Streamlined Government

The upcoming wave of M&A in 2025 will likely be shaped by Trump’s deregulatory agenda, which promises to revitalize corporate deal-making across various sectors. Lower borrowing costs, a favorable market, and a pro-business stance will fuel mergers, while companies like Exxon, Comcast, Alphabet, and even the financial regulatory agencies will be poised to take advantage of the new environment. Whether through consolidations, acquisitions, or government reorganization, the "Art of the Deal" in 2025 will be painted with bold strokes aimed at cutting costs, increasing efficiencies, and maximizing profitability in a changing political landscape.